Mexican Grand Prix – Lewis Hamilton will have his first chance to claim his sixth world championship in Mexico. We run through the possible permutations ahead of round 18.
A one-three finish at the Japanese Grand Prix resulted in Mercedes clinching the constructors’ championship for the sixth season in a row, and also meant that only a Mercedes driver will now take the drivers’ title.
Heading into the Mexican Grand Prix, Hamilton holds a 64-point lead over team-mate Valtteri Bottas with a maximum of 104 still available (four wins & four fastest laps). In the unlikely event of tied points at the end of the season, Hamilton would take the title due to having more victories than Bottas.
After Mexico, there will be 78 points left on the table over the final three rounds. Meaning Hamilton needs to finish the Mexican Grand Prix with a 78-point lead over Bottas. In other words, he needs a 14-point swing over Bottas this weekend to secure his sixth crown in Mexico.
Hamilton’s task has been made harder by the pace advantage held by Ferrari and Red Bull in Mexico. Nevertheless, the Briton was promoted to third on the grid after Max Verstappen’s three-place grid penalty, and the potential for a wet race means that there is still scope for the number 44 car to secure the title today.
There are several scenarios in which the title can be won today, which are:
- If Bottas finishes anywhere on the podium, the championship race will definitely go on to the US Grand Prix.
- If Hamilton wins and claims the fastest lap, he needs Bottas to finish 4th or lower.
- If Hamilton wins without the fastest lap, he needs Bottas to finish 5th or lower.
- If Hamilton finishes 2nd and claims the fastest lap, he needs Bottas to finish 8th or lower.
- If Hamilton finishes 2nd without the fastest lap, he needs Bottas to either finish 8th (without the fastest lap), or ninth or lower (regardless of fastest lap).
- If Hamilton finishes 3rd and claims the fastest lap, he needs Bottas to finish 9th or lower.
- If Hamilton finishes 3rd without the fastest lap, he needs Bottas to finish 10th (without the fastest lap) or lower.
- If Hamilton finishes 4th or lower, then the championship race will go on to the US Grand Prix.
If neither driver scores, then the championship would go on to the United States Grand Prix, where much simpler permutations would exist.
To view the qualifying results for the 2019 Mexican Grand Prix, click here.
